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Northwest Natural Holding Company (NWN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.41 - $91.61$62.42
Multi-Stage$40.31 - $43.95$42.10
Blended Fair Value$52.26
Current Price$44.93
Upside16.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.43%3.82%1.801.661.551.381.371.321.271.331.271.21
YoY Growth--8.19%7.28%12.25%0.90%3.90%3.95%-4.90%4.75%4.60%-1.70%
Dividend Yield--4.21%4.47%3.25%2.67%2.53%2.13%1.94%2.32%2.15%2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.1112.577.54
Cash Retained (M)23.8723.8723.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.11-12.57-7.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.7711.3116.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.5540.5540.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.280.40
LTM Dividend per Share1.891.891.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.280.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.982.172.29
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.43%5.43%6.43%
Fair Value$44.41$62.42$91.61
Upside / Downside-1.16%38.93%103.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.53105.99111.75117.82124.22130.97134.90
Payout Ratio76.25%79.00%81.75%84.50%87.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76.6683.7491.3699.56108.39117.88124.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate4.43%5.43%6.43%
Year 1 PV (M)76.0376.7577.48
Year 2 PV (M)75.3176.7678.22
Year 3 PV (M)74.5176.6778.88
Year 4 PV (M)73.6576.5179.45
Year 5 PV (M)72.7276.2779.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,262.411,324.011,388.01
Equity Value (M)1,634.621,706.971,781.99
Shares Outstanding (M)40.5540.5540.55
Fair Value$40.31$42.10$43.95
Upside / Downside-10.28%-6.30%-2.19%

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