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Definitive Analysis

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Flour Mills Kepenos S.A. (KEPEN.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.45 - $2.46$1.89
Multi-Stage$2.81 - $3.09$2.95
Blended Fair Value$2.42
Current Price$1.73
Upside39.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.80%-11.52%0.050.050.050.590.180.040.030.030.020.03
YoY Growth---0.05%0.03%-92.06%221.71%328.08%54.01%-0.09%21.76%-23.34%-81.27%
Dividend Yield--2.72%2.30%2.20%20.54%8.51%2.44%1.99%1.46%1.28%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)0.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.160.100.06
Cash Retained (M)0.480.480.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.16-0.10-0.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.320.380.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.706.706.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.20%0.80%1.80%
Fair Value$1.45$1.89$2.46
Upside / Downside-16.37%9.15%42.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)0.790.800.800.810.820.820.85
Payout Ratio39.82%49.86%59.89%69.93%79.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.310.400.480.570.650.740.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.20%0.80%1.80%
Year 1 PV (M)0.370.370.38
Year 2 PV (M)0.420.430.43
Year 3 PV (M)0.460.470.49
Year 4 PV (M)0.490.510.53
Year 5 PV (M)0.520.550.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)16.5917.4318.32
Equity Value (M)18.8419.7620.72
Shares Outstanding (M)6.706.706.70
Fair Value$2.81$2.95$3.09
Upside / Downside62.54%70.48%78.73%

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