Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $121.05 - $389.30 | $364.83 |
| Multi-Stage | $52.91 - $57.83 | $55.33 |
| Blended Fair Value | $210.08 | |
| Current Price | $157.59 | |
| Upside | 33.31% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 15.99% | 21.86% | 1.43 | 1.68 | 1.16 | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 0.81 | 0.85 | 0.57 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -14.79% | 44.81% | 187.89% | 33.73% | -55.80% | -14.45% | -1.38% | -4.91% | 48.91% | 187.77% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.89% | 1.05% | 0.84% | 0.27% | 0.17% | 0.40% | 0.56% | 0.60% | 0.58% | 0.42% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 17,589.91 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 12,074.96 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 5,514.94 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 3,517.98 | 2,198.74 | 1,319.24 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 5,514.94 | 5,514.94 | 5,514.94 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -3,517.98 | -2,198.74 | -1,319.24 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,996.96 | 3,316.20 | 4,195.70 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 8,985.93 | 8,985.93 | 8,985.93 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.22 | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.34 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.22 | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.57 | 1.71 | 1.81 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.86% | 6.86% | 6.86% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $121.05 | $364.83 | $389.30 |
| Upside / Downside | -23.19% | 131.50% | 147.03% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 17,589.91 | 18,733.25 | 19,950.91 | 21,247.72 | 22,628.82 | 24,099.69 | 24,822.69 |
| Payout Ratio | 68.65% | 72.92% | 77.19% | 81.46% | 85.73% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 12,074.96 | 13,659.85 | 15,399.76 | 17,308.15 | 19,399.56 | 21,689.73 | 22,960.98 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.86% | 6.86% | 6.86% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 12,662.35 | 12,782.37 | 12,902.39 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 13,232.76 | 13,484.80 | 13,739.23 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 13,786.53 | 14,182.29 | 14,585.56 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 14,324.00 | 14,874.86 | 15,441.46 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 14,845.49 | 15,562.54 | 16,307.02 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 406,633.02 | 426,273.55 | 446,665.76 |
| Equity Value (M) | 475,484.14 | 497,160.40 | 519,641.42 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 8,985.93 | 8,985.93 | 8,985.93 |
| Fair Value | $52.91 | $55.33 | $57.83 |
| Upside / Downside | -66.42% | -64.89% | -63.30% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |