Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,010.89 - $1,409.88 | $1,210.21 |
| Multi-Stage | $3,260.72 - $3,595.91 | $3,424.90 |
| Blended Fair Value | $2,317.56 | |
| Current Price | $1,995.00 | |
| Upside | 16.17% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -10.09% | 4.48% | 280.34 | 324.24 | 299.48 | 249.50 | 389.32 | 477.27 | 259.37 | 179.69 | 119.94 | 195.94 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -13.54% | 8.27% | 20.03% | -35.91% | -18.43% | 84.01% | 44.35% | 49.81% | -38.78% | 8.32% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 13.61% | 9.74% | 7.45% | 6.53% | 10.14% | 10.05% | 3.63% | 3.46% | 2.73% | 3.63% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 141,742.05 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 140,452.52 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,289.53 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 28,348.41 | 17,717.76 | 10,630.65 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,289.53 | 1,289.53 | 1,289.53 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -28,348.41 | -17,717.76 | -10,630.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -27,058.88 | -16,428.23 | -9,341.12 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 800.66 | 800.66 | 800.66 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -33.80 | -20.52 | -11.67 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 175.42 | 175.42 | 175.42 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -33.80 | -20.52 | -11.67 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 141.63 | 154.90 | 163.75 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.26% | 6.26% | 6.26% |
| Growth Rate | -6.80% | -5.80% | -4.80% |
| Fair Value | $1,010.89 | $1,210.21 | $1,409.88 |
| Upside / Downside | -49.33% | -39.34% | -29.33% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 141,742.05 | 133,519.99 | 125,774.86 | 118,479.01 | 111,606.37 | 105,132.40 | 108,286.37 |
| Payout Ratio | 99.09% | 97.27% | 95.45% | 93.64% | 91.82% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 140,452.52 | 129,877.81 | 120,057.31 | 110,939.11 | 102,474.79 | 94,619.16 | 100,164.89 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.26% | 6.26% | 6.26% |
| Growth Rate | -6.80% | -5.80% | -4.80% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 120,932.96 | 122,230.53 | 123,528.10 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 104,089.77 | 106,335.46 | 108,605.11 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 89,559.96 | 92,473.85 | 95,450.28 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 77,029.30 | 80,388.89 | 83,857.20 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 66,225.87 | 69,855.86 | 73,643.30 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,152,888.30 | 2,270,892.78 | 2,394,015.91 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,610,726.16 | 2,742,177.37 | 2,879,099.90 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 800.66 | 800.66 | 800.66 |
| Fair Value | $3,260.72 | $3,424.90 | $3,595.91 |
| Upside / Downside | 63.44% | 71.67% | 80.25% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |