Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $6,738.79 - $14,392.58 | $9,590.42 |
| Multi-Stage | $4,862.42 - $5,313.44 | $5,083.84 |
| Blended Fair Value | $7,337.13 | |
| Current Price | $14,650.00 | |
| Upside | -49.92% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.71% | 31.69% | 37.18 | 33.86 | 34.59 | 34.65 | 21.22 | 22.36 | 18.76 | 5.06 | 5.47 | 4.75 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 9.80% | -2.11% | -0.15% | 63.24% | -5.07% | 19.16% | 270.79% | -7.42% | 15.14% | 100.23% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.35% | 0.53% | 0.72% | 1.91% | 0.85% | 1.46% | 2.38% | 0.88% | 1.14% | 1.67% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 261,680.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 28,709.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 232,971.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 52,336.00 | 32,710.00 | 19,626.00 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 232,971.00 | 232,971.00 | 232,971.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -52,336.00 | -32,710.00 | -19,626.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 180,635.00 | 200,261.00 | 213,345.00 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 734.74 | 734.74 | 734.74 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 245.85 | 272.56 | 290.37 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 39.07 | 39.07 | 39.07 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 245.85 | 272.56 | 290.37 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 284.92 | 311.63 | 329.44 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.96% | 9.96% | 9.96% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $6,738.79 | $9,590.42 | $14,392.58 |
| Upside / Downside | -54.00% | -34.54% | -1.76% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 261,680.00 | 278,689.20 | 296,804.00 | 316,096.26 | 336,642.51 | 358,524.28 | 369,280.01 |
| Payout Ratio | 10.97% | 26.78% | 42.58% | 58.39% | 74.19% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 28,709.00 | 74,624.12 | 126,386.92 | 184,563.59 | 249,769.24 | 322,671.85 | 341,584.01 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.96% | 9.96% | 9.96% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 67,227.17 | 67,864.40 | 68,501.62 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 102,573.06 | 104,526.79 | 106,498.95 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 134,940.65 | 138,814.31 | 142,761.40 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 164,513.42 | 170,840.14 | 177,347.61 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 191,464.84 | 200,712.66 | 210,314.42 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,911,898.67 | 3,052,544.46 | 3,198,573.10 |
| Equity Value (M) | 3,572,617.80 | 3,735,302.75 | 3,903,997.10 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 734.74 | 734.74 | 734.74 |
| Fair Value | $4,862.42 | $5,083.84 | $5,313.44 |
| Upside / Downside | -66.81% | -65.30% | -63.73% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |