Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2,295.49 - $4,882.45 | $3,262.32 |
| Multi-Stage | $2,786.08 - $3,054.70 | $2,917.86 |
| Blended Fair Value | $3,090.09 | |
| Current Price | $1,810.00 | |
| Upside | 70.72% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 7.85% | 13.33% | 47.26 | 45.87 | 42.60 | 43.89 | 37.22 | 32.39 | 29.55 | 24.13 | 23.11 | 17.81 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 3.04% | 7.67% | -2.94% | 17.91% | 14.92% | 9.63% | 22.43% | 4.43% | 29.78% | 31.64% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.61% | 2.82% | 2.93% | 2.88% | 1.79% | 1.23% | 1.59% | 1.86% | 2.03% | 1.67% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 9,641.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 3,664.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 5,977.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,928.20 | 1,205.13 | 723.08 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 5,977.00 | 5,977.00 | 5,977.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,928.20 | -1,205.13 | -723.08 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 4,048.80 | 4,771.88 | 5,253.93 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 76.78 | 76.78 | 76.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 52.73 | 62.15 | 68.43 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 47.72 | 47.72 | 47.72 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 52.73 | 62.15 | 68.43 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 100.45 | 109.87 | 116.15 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.01% | 7.01% | 7.01% |
| Growth Rate | 2.52% | 3.52% | 4.52% |
| Fair Value | $2,295.49 | $3,262.32 | $4,882.45 |
| Upside / Downside | 26.82% | 80.24% | 169.75% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 9,641.00 | 9,980.70 | 10,332.38 | 10,696.44 | 11,073.33 | 11,463.51 | 11,807.41 |
| Payout Ratio | 38.00% | 48.40% | 58.80% | 69.20% | 79.60% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 3,664.00 | 4,831.01 | 6,075.71 | 7,402.12 | 8,814.47 | 10,317.16 | 10,921.86 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.01% | 7.01% | 7.01% |
| Growth Rate | 2.52% | 3.52% | 4.52% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,470.93 | 4,514.54 | 4,558.15 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,203.76 | 5,305.76 | 5,408.76 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5,867.28 | 6,040.64 | 6,217.39 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 6,466.01 | 6,722.00 | 6,985.51 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 7,004.23 | 7,352.55 | 7,714.59 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 184,905.68 | 194,101.04 | 203,658.64 |
| Equity Value (M) | 213,917.87 | 224,036.52 | 234,543.04 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 76.78 | 76.78 | 76.78 |
| Fair Value | $2,786.08 | $2,917.86 | $3,054.70 |
| Upside / Downside | 53.93% | 61.21% | 68.77% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |