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Marathon Petroleum Corporation (0JYA.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas EnergySector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.02 - $103.58$79.55
Multi-Stage$72.76 - $79.41$76.02
Blended Fair Value$77.78
Current Price$192.74
Upside-59.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.76%8.21%3.704.044.104.764.844.483.062.482.311.97
YoY Growth---8.49%-1.41%-13.81%-1.72%8.01%46.54%23.42%7.51%17.29%16.98%
Dividend Yield--2.54%1.98%3.04%5.57%9.06%18.99%5.01%3.39%4.56%5.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,517.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,132.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)385.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)303.50189.69113.81
Cash Retained (M)385.51385.51385.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-303.50-189.69-113.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.01195.82271.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)311.75311.75311.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.630.87
LTM Dividend per Share3.633.633.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.630.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.894.264.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate2.55%3.55%4.55%
Fair Value$61.02$79.55$103.58
Upside / Downside-68.34%-58.73%-46.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,517.511,571.431,627.271,685.091,744.971,806.971,861.18
Payout Ratio74.60%77.68%80.76%83.84%86.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,132.001,220.641,314.141,412.751,516.711,626.271,721.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate2.55%3.55%4.55%
Year 1 PV (M)1,108.041,118.841,129.65
Year 2 PV (M)1,082.881,104.101,125.53
Year 3 PV (M)1,056.751,087.971,119.79
Year 4 PV (M)1,029.861,070.621,112.58
Year 5 PV (M)1,002.391,052.231,104.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,401.5018,266.6219,165.81
Equity Value (M)22,681.4223,700.3724,757.38
Shares Outstanding (M)311.75311.75311.75
Fair Value$72.76$76.02$79.41
Upside / Downside-62.25%-60.56%-58.80%

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