Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $30,879.73 - $75,147.37 | $70,424.09 |
| Multi-Stage | $11,274.30 - $12,322.37 | $11,788.78 |
| Blended Fair Value | $41,106.43 | |
| Current Price | $13,240.00 | |
| Upside | 210.47% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 5.40% | 18.57% | 294.29 | 339.69 | 190.68 | 145.32 | 233.01 | 226.25 | 215.50 | 209.24 | 157.51 | 112.51 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -13.36% | 78.14% | 31.22% | -37.63% | 2.99% | 4.99% | 2.99% | 32.84% | 39.99% | 109.99% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.18% | 2.26% | 1.33% | 0.81% | 1.50% | 1.72% | 1.45% | 1.17% | 0.93% | 0.70% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 8,164.47 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 6,430.03 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,734.44 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,632.89 | 1,020.56 | 612.34 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,734.44 | 1,734.44 | 1,734.44 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,632.89 | -1,020.56 | -612.34 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 101.54 | 713.88 | 1,122.10 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 21.61 | 21.61 | 21.61 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 4.70 | 33.04 | 51.93 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 297.59 | 297.59 | 297.59 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 4.70 | 33.04 | 51.93 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 302.29 | 330.63 | 349.52 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.53% | 6.53% | 6.53% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $30,879.73 | $70,424.09 | $75,147.37 |
| Upside / Downside | 133.23% | 431.90% | 467.58% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 8,164.47 | 8,695.16 | 9,260.35 | 9,862.27 | 10,503.32 | 11,186.03 | 11,521.61 |
| Payout Ratio | 78.76% | 81.01% | 83.25% | 85.50% | 87.75% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 6,430.03 | 7,043.52 | 7,709.59 | 8,432.49 | 9,216.79 | 10,067.43 | 10,657.49 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.53% | 6.53% | 6.53% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 6,549.52 | 6,611.60 | 6,673.68 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 6,666.08 | 6,793.05 | 6,921.22 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 6,779.76 | 6,974.39 | 7,172.70 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 6,890.62 | 7,155.62 | 7,428.18 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 6,998.69 | 7,336.73 | 7,687.71 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 209,719.21 | 219,848.73 | 230,365.93 |
| Equity Value (M) | 243,603.88 | 254,720.11 | 266,249.40 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 21.61 | 21.61 | 21.61 |
| Fair Value | $11,274.30 | $11,788.78 | $12,322.37 |
| Upside / Downside | -14.85% | -10.96% | -6.93% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAH | Sonic Automotive, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.31 | 35.28% |
| AIG-PA | American International Group, Inc. | 2.12% | $1.69 | 30.01% |
| LANC | Lancaster Colony Corporation | 2.11% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| TDAC | Translational Development Acquisition Corp. | 2.10% | $0.22 | 79.86% |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | 2.09% | $0.85 | 79.50% |
| FDUS | Fidus Investment Corporation | 2.09% | $0.41 | 17.86% |
| IBOC | International Bancshares Corporation | 2.09% | $1.40 | 20.70% |
| SMRSX | ALPS/Smith Short Duration Bond Investor | 2.09% | $0.22 | 98.81% |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp. | 2.09% | $0.20 | 8.46% |
| MLR | Miller Industries, Inc. | 2.08% | $0.78 | 30.00% |
| OACC | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences | 2.08% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| FCCO | First Community Corporation | 2.07% | $0.60 | 25.08% |
| GNTX | Gentex Corporation | 2.07% | $0.49 | 28.42% |
| OACCU | Oaktree Acquisition Corp. III Life Sciences Unit | 2.07% | $0.22 | 61.74% |
| DLB | Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | 2.06% | $1.31 | 49.64% |
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises, Inc. | 2.05% | $0.77 | 37.24% |
| CAKE | The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | 2.05% | $1.08 | 32.74% |
| EWBC | East West Bancorp, Inc. | 2.05% | $2.36 | 25.97% |
| ALF | Centurion Acquisition Corp. | 2.04% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | 2.04% | $3.45 | 46.19% |
| OVLY | Oak Valley Bancorp | 2.04% | $0.61 | 29.73% |
| 0HYE.L | Cincinnati Financial Corporation | 2.03% | $3.28 | 24.36% |
| AOS | A. O. Smith Corporation | 2.03% | $1.39 | 36.68% |
| ACT | Enact Holdings, Inc. | 2.02% | $0.80 | 18.03% |
| ARKO | Arko Corp. | 2.02% | $0.09 | 55.86% |
| KFY | Korn Ferry | 2.02% | $1.34 | 26.97% |
| 0H68.L | Aflac Incorporated | 2.01% | $2.20 | 28.14% |
| LEN | Lennar Corporation | 2.01% | $2.10 | 25.46% |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corporation | 2.00% | $3.66 | 41.17% |
| RHLD | Resolute Holdings Management, Inc. | 2.00% | $3.74 | 22.61% |
| ALFUU | Centurion Acquisition Corp. Unit | 1.99% | $0.22 | 51.38% |
| GNTY | Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.97 | 30.69% |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | 1.99% | $0.95 | 24.54% |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | 1.99% | $3.44 | 68.67% |
| THG | The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. | 1.98% | $3.55 | 20.46% |
| CNMD | CONMED Corporation | 1.97% | $0.80 | 38.60% |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 36.69% |
| FEIM | Frequency Electronics, Inc. | 1.97% | $1.00 | 46.25% |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | 1.97% | $2.04 | 37.93% |
| BNJ | Brookfield Finance Inc. 4.50% P | 1.96% | $0.30 | 70.51% |
| MTG | MGIC Investment Corporation | 1.96% | $0.57 | 17.51% |
| CCS | Century Communities, Inc. | 1.95% | $1.15 | 16.06% |
| 0K6F.L | NetApp, Inc. | 1.94% | $2.07 | 35.51% |
| BLK | BlackRock, Inc. | 1.94% | $21.00 | 53.94% |
| FNB-PE | F.N.B. Corporation | 1.94% | $0.48 | 34.55% |
| 0L4F.L | Sealed Air Corporation | 1.93% | $0.80 | 30.13% |
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. | 1.93% | $0.51 | 42.14% |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | 1.93% | $0.80 | 26.98% |
| FSFG | First Savings Financial Group, Inc. | 1.92% | $0.61 | 23.93% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | 1.92% | $0.50 | 54.91% |