Definitive Analysis
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Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.57 - $18.09$15.26
Multi-Stage$21.00 - $23.03$21.99
Blended Fair Value$18.63
Current Price$33.38
Upside-44.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.911.230.370.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---25.42%228.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.53%5.88%1.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)89.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.3422.7113.63
Cash Retained (M)89.2489.2489.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.34-22.71-13.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.9066.5375.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.12102.12102.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.650.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.910.910.91
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.650.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.421.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.57$15.26$18.09
Upside / Downside-62.34%-54.27%-45.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.69179.88178.08176.30174.53172.79177.97
Payout Ratio50.89%58.71%66.53%74.35%82.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92.46105.60118.48131.08143.43155.51164.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)95.8296.8097.77
Year 2 PV (M)97.5499.54101.56
Year 3 PV (M)97.92100.95104.04
Year 4 PV (M)97.21101.24105.39
Year 5 PV (M)95.64100.62105.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,660.251,746.701,836.72
Equity Value (M)2,144.382,245.852,351.29
Shares Outstanding (M)102.12102.12102.12
Fair Value$21.00$21.99$23.03
Upside / Downside-37.09%-34.11%-31.02%

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