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OneSpan Inc. (OSPN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.49 - $15.09$12.73
Multi-Stage$16.87 - $18.53$17.68
Blended Fair Value$15.21
Current Price$15.89
Upside-4.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.120.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)58.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.637.274.36
Cash Retained (M)44.2744.2744.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.63-7.27-4.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.6437.0039.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)39.1739.1739.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.941.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.941.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.49$12.73$15.09
Upside / Downside-34.01%-19.86%-5.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)58.1557.5756.9956.4255.8655.3056.96
Payout Ratio23.87%37.09%50.32%63.55%76.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.8821.3528.6835.8542.8849.7752.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)19.3819.5719.77
Year 2 PV (M)23.6124.0924.58
Year 3 PV (M)26.7827.6128.46
Year 4 PV (M)29.0730.2731.51
Year 5 PV (M)30.6132.2033.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)531.35559.02587.83
Equity Value (M)660.79692.77726.01
Shares Outstanding (M)39.1739.1739.17
Fair Value$16.87$17.68$18.53
Upside / Downside6.16%11.29%16.63%

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