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New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.18 - $207.39$119.55
Multi-Stage$55.34 - $60.37$57.81
Blended Fair Value$88.68
Current Price$48.15
Upside84.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.86%8.93%1.791.641.501.271.161.171.030.950.870.82
YoY Growth--9.09%9.33%18.22%9.19%-0.72%13.21%8.58%8.92%6.72%7.73%
Dividend Yield--3.71%3.51%3.36%2.56%2.83%3.29%2.32%2.08%2.17%2.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)335.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)180.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.1341.9525.17
Cash Retained (M)155.56155.56155.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.13-41.95-25.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.44113.61130.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.70100.70100.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.131.29
LTM Dividend per Share1.791.791.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.131.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.672.923.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$78.18$119.55$207.39
Upside / Downside62.37%148.28%330.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)335.63357.44380.68405.42431.77459.84473.63
Payout Ratio53.65%60.92%68.19%75.46%82.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)180.07217.76259.58305.93357.21413.85438.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)197.72199.60201.47
Year 2 PV (M)214.02218.09222.21
Year 3 PV (M)229.02235.60242.30
Year 4 PV (M)242.81252.15261.75
Year 5 PV (M)255.43267.77280.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,434.324,648.504,870.87
Equity Value (M)5,573.325,821.706,079.18
Shares Outstanding (M)100.70100.70100.70
Fair Value$55.34$57.81$60.37
Upside / Downside14.94%20.06%25.37%

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