Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $138.45 - $191.98 | $165.31 |
| Multi-Stage | $397.86 - $440.49 | $418.73 |
| Blended Fair Value | $292.02 | |
| Current Price | $304.00 | |
| Upside | -3.94% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 11.88% | -6.19% | 9.66 | 14.48 | 14.24 | 0.00 | 2.75 | 5.51 | 2.74 | 5.54 | 4.57 | 13.71 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -33.33% | 1.72% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -50.01% | 100.78% | -50.49% | 21.25% | -66.67% | -25.01% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.64% | 3.34% | 3.65% | 0.00% | 0.99% | 2.84% | 0.84% | 1.58% | 1.15% | 4.54% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 8,314.52 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,598.32 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 6,716.20 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,662.90 | 1,039.32 | 623.59 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 6,716.20 | 6,716.20 | 6,716.20 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,662.90 | -1,039.32 | -623.59 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 5,053.30 | 5,676.89 | 6,092.61 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 331.13 | 331.13 | 331.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 15.26 | 17.14 | 18.40 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4.83 | 4.83 | 4.83 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 15.26 | 17.14 | 18.40 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 20.09 | 21.97 | 23.23 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.49% | 6.49% | 6.49% |
| Growth Rate | -7.01% | -6.01% | -5.01% |
| Fair Value | $138.45 | $165.31 | $191.98 |
| Upside / Downside | -54.46% | -45.62% | -36.85% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 8,314.52 | 7,815.13 | 7,345.74 | 6,904.53 | 6,489.83 | 6,100.03 | 6,283.04 |
| Payout Ratio | 19.22% | 33.38% | 47.53% | 61.69% | 75.84% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,598.32 | 2,608.58 | 3,491.72 | 4,259.36 | 4,922.19 | 5,490.03 | 5,811.81 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.49% | 6.49% | 6.49% |
| Growth Rate | -7.01% | -6.01% | -5.01% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 2,423.63 | 2,449.69 | 2,475.75 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 3,014.14 | 3,079.31 | 3,145.18 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 3,416.09 | 3,527.49 | 3,641.27 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,667.80 | 3,828.13 | 3,993.66 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,800.88 | 4,009.68 | 4,227.57 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 115,419.95 | 121,760.65 | 128,377.00 |
| Equity Value (M) | 131,742.49 | 138,654.95 | 145,860.43 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 331.13 | 331.13 | 331.13 |
| Fair Value | $397.86 | $418.73 | $440.49 |
| Upside / Downside | 30.87% | 37.74% | 44.90% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |