Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,589.30 - $8,647.33 | $2,884.87 |
| Multi-Stage | $982.96 - $1,072.84 | $1,027.09 |
| Blended Fair Value | $1,955.98 | |
| Current Price | $4,003.00 | |
| Upside | -51.14% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 25.67% | 17.42% | 28.75 | 30.08 | 29.98 | 23.26 | 13.35 | 9.17 | 9.53 | 9.84 | 9.75 | 5.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -4.42% | 0.33% | 28.88% | 74.21% | 45.57% | -3.78% | -3.09% | 0.94% | 94.91% | -13.36% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.72% | 1.12% | 0.87% | 0.80% | 0.59% | 0.83% | 1.29% | 1.61% | 1.34% | 0.74% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 6,796.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 4,428.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,368.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,359.20 | 849.50 | 509.70 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,368.00 | 2,368.00 | 2,368.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,359.20 | -849.50 | -509.70 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,008.80 | 1,518.50 | 1,858.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 141.38 | 141.38 | 141.38 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 7.14 | 10.74 | 13.14 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 31.32 | 31.32 | 31.32 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 7.14 | 10.74 | 13.14 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 38.46 | 42.06 | 44.46 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.05% | 8.05% | 8.05% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $1,589.30 | $2,884.87 | $8,647.33 |
| Upside / Downside | -60.30% | -27.93% | 116.02% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 6,796.00 | 7,237.74 | 7,708.19 | 8,209.23 | 8,742.83 | 9,311.11 | 9,590.44 |
| Payout Ratio | 65.16% | 70.12% | 75.09% | 80.06% | 85.03% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 4,428.00 | 5,075.45 | 5,788.36 | 6,572.50 | 7,434.13 | 8,380.00 | 8,871.16 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.05% | 8.05% | 8.05% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,653.09 | 4,697.19 | 4,741.30 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,865.07 | 4,957.74 | 5,051.28 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5,064.44 | 5,209.82 | 5,357.96 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 5,251.68 | 5,453.64 | 5,661.37 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 5,427.24 | 5,689.37 | 5,961.54 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 113,706.58 | 119,198.65 | 124,900.92 |
| Equity Value (M) | 138,968.10 | 145,206.43 | 151,674.38 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 141.38 | 141.38 | 141.38 |
| Fair Value | $982.96 | $1,027.09 | $1,072.84 |
| Upside / Downside | -75.44% | -74.34% | -73.20% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |