Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $173,617.06 - $425,222.95 | $258,878.45 |
| Multi-Stage | $163,688.54 - $179,390.95 | $171,393.41 |
| Blended Fair Value | $215,135.93 | |
| Current Price | $76,100.00 | |
| Upside | 182.70% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -2.18% | 10.65% | 2,871.52 | 625.87 | 335.94 | 376.69 | 3,382.82 | 3,205.93 | 3,034.58 | 2,642.95 | 1,921.75 | 1,235.82 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 358.81% | 86.30% | -10.82% | -88.86% | 5.52% | 5.65% | 14.82% | 37.53% | 55.50% | 18.40% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.07% | 0.90% | 0.43% | 0.67% | 6.38% | 3.95% | 3.87% | 3.50% | 2.44% | 1.38% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 39,274.15 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 6,987.86 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 32,286.29 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 7,854.83 | 4,909.27 | 2,945.56 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 32,286.29 | 32,286.29 | 32,286.29 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -7,854.83 | -4,909.27 | -2,945.56 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 24,431.46 | 27,377.02 | 29,340.73 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 4.87 | 4.87 | 4.87 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 5,020.78 | 5,626.11 | 6,029.66 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1,436.04 | 1,436.04 | 1,436.04 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 5,020.78 | 5,626.11 | 6,029.66 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6,456.82 | 7,062.15 | 7,465.70 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.51% | 7.51% | 7.51% |
| Growth Rate | 3.66% | 4.66% | 5.66% |
| Fair Value | $173,617.06 | $258,878.45 | $425,222.95 |
| Upside / Downside | 128.14% | 240.18% | 458.77% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 39,274.15 | 41,103.75 | 43,018.59 | 45,022.62 | 47,120.02 | 49,315.13 | 50,794.58 |
| Payout Ratio | 17.79% | 32.23% | 46.68% | 61.12% | 75.56% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 6,987.86 | 13,249.39 | 20,079.14 | 27,516.48 | 35,603.18 | 44,383.61 | 46,984.99 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.51% | 7.51% | 7.51% |
| Growth Rate | 3.66% | 4.66% | 5.66% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 12,205.70 | 12,323.45 | 12,441.20 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 17,040.38 | 17,370.74 | 17,704.28 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 21,512.65 | 22,141.27 | 22,782.03 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 25,642.29 | 26,646.19 | 27,679.29 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 29,448.13 | 30,896.24 | 32,400.76 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 690,670.41 | 724,634.10 | 759,920.98 |
| Equity Value (M) | 796,519.55 | 834,012.00 | 872,928.54 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 4.87 | 4.87 | 4.87 |
| Fair Value | $163,688.54 | $171,393.41 | $179,390.95 |
| Upside / Downside | 115.10% | 125.22% | 135.73% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |