Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,199.82 - $1,976.54 | $1,544.88 |
| Multi-Stage | $2,475.03 - $2,723.32 | $2,596.75 |
| Blended Fair Value | $2,070.82 | |
| Current Price | $1,306.50 | |
| Upside | 58.50% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 3.15% | -0.98% | 38.37 | 37.18 | 32.50 | 24.52 | 25.90 | 32.86 | 22.12 | 25.29 | 50.57 | 43.62 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 3.21% | 14.40% | 32.56% | -5.34% | -21.18% | 48.53% | -12.51% | -50.00% | 15.94% | 2.98% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.81% | 2.65% | 2.66% | 2.31% | 2.08% | 4.27% | 2.06% | 2.49% | 5.10% | 4.93% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 61,018.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 21,960.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 39,058.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 12,203.60 | 7,627.25 | 4,576.35 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 39,058.00 | 39,058.00 | 39,058.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -12,203.60 | -7,627.25 | -4,576.35 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 26,854.40 | 31,430.75 | 34,481.65 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 573.37 | 573.37 | 573.37 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 46.84 | 54.82 | 60.14 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 38.30 | 38.30 | 38.30 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 46.84 | 54.82 | 60.14 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 85.14 | 93.12 | 98.44 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.30% | 6.30% | 6.30% |
| Growth Rate | -0.75% | 0.25% | 1.25% |
| Fair Value | $1,199.82 | $1,544.88 | $1,976.54 |
| Upside / Downside | -8.17% | 18.25% | 51.29% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 61,018.00 | 61,172.29 | 61,326.97 | 61,482.04 | 61,637.50 | 61,793.35 | 63,647.15 |
| Payout Ratio | 35.99% | 46.79% | 57.59% | 68.40% | 79.20% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 21,960.00 | 28,623.43 | 35,320.43 | 42,051.10 | 48,815.59 | 55,614.02 | 58,873.62 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.30% | 6.30% | 6.30% |
| Growth Rate | -0.75% | 0.25% | 1.25% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 26,659.55 | 26,928.16 | 27,196.76 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 30,639.96 | 31,260.48 | 31,887.22 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 33,975.88 | 35,013.21 | 36,071.45 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 36,735.25 | 38,238.25 | 39,786.90 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 38,979.83 | 40,983.46 | 43,068.65 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,252,122.51 | 1,316,483.83 | 1,383,464.98 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,419,112.98 | 1,488,907.39 | 1,561,475.96 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 573.37 | 573.37 | 573.37 |
| Fair Value | $2,475.03 | $2,596.75 | $2,723.32 |
| Upside / Downside | 89.44% | 98.76% | 108.44% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |