Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Hengtong Holding Co., Ltd Class A (600226.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.40 - $0.57$0.48
Multi-Stage$0.61 - $0.67$0.64
Blended Fair Value$0.56
Current Price$4.70
Upside-88.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-31.64%-10.76%0.000.000.000.000.000.030.010.010.010.05
YoY Growth--151.91%835.42%-79.11%-79.41%-85.27%109.36%45.60%-0.02%-82.96%313.46%
Dividend Yield--0.15%0.06%0.01%0.04%0.16%1.22%0.30%0.20%0.15%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)190.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)173.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.1523.8414.30
Cash Retained (M)173.59173.59173.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.15-23.84-14.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)135.45149.75159.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,262.543,262.543,262.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate-2.07%-1.07%-0.07%
Fair Value$0.40$0.48$0.57
Upside / Downside-91.55%-89.78%-87.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)190.73188.69186.67184.67182.70180.74186.16
Payout Ratio8.98%25.19%41.39%57.59%73.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.1347.5277.26106.36134.82162.67172.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate-2.07%-1.07%-0.07%
Year 1 PV (M)42.9743.4143.85
Year 2 PV (M)63.1864.4865.79
Year 3 PV (M)78.6581.0983.57
Year 4 PV (M)90.1693.9097.76
Year 5 PV (M)98.38103.50108.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,611.141,695.101,782.52
Equity Value (M)1,984.492,081.482,182.33
Shares Outstanding (M)3,262.543,262.543,262.54
Fair Value$0.61$0.64$0.67
Upside / Downside-87.06%-86.43%-85.77%

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