Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech. Co., Ltd. (300499.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.03 - $0.03$0.03
Multi-Stage$0.04 - $0.05$0.04
Blended Fair Value$0.04
Current Price$32.52
Upside-99.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-45.11%-8.40%0.000.140.030.040.080.060.010.050.050.01
YoY Growth---97.86%325.44%-19.73%-50.73%38.63%319.35%-74.60%5.09%267.22%102.86%
Dividend Yield--0.01%1.06%0.24%0.36%0.88%0.55%0.19%0.69%0.33%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.310.200.12
Cash Retained (M)1.431.431.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.31-0.20-0.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.121.241.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)305.25305.25305.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.000.000.00
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-5.28%-4.28%-3.28%
Fair Value$0.03$0.03$0.03
Upside / Downside-99.92%-99.91%-99.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1.561.501.431.371.311.251.29
Payout Ratio8.22%24.58%40.93%57.29%73.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.130.370.590.780.971.131.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-5.28%-4.28%-3.28%
Year 1 PV (M)0.330.330.34
Year 2 PV (M)0.470.480.49
Year 3 PV (M)0.570.590.61
Year 4 PV (M)0.630.660.69
Year 5 PV (M)0.670.700.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)10.0710.6111.18
Equity Value (M)12.7413.3814.04
Shares Outstanding (M)305.25305.25305.25
Fair Value$0.04$0.04$0.05
Upside / Downside-99.87%-99.87%-99.86%

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