Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $71,282.92 - $188,112.37 | $108,824.41 |
| Multi-Stage | $48,102.99 - $52,597.26 | $50,309.20 |
| Blended Fair Value | $79,566.80 | |
| Current Price | $59,500.00 | |
| Upside | 33.73% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 27.04% | 18.41% | 267.02 | 238.41 | 152.58 | 129.17 | 174.27 | 80.68 | 0.00 | 495.71 | 25.75 | 55.08 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 12.00% | 56.25% | 18.13% | -25.88% | 116.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | 1,825.13% | -53.25% | 11.73% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.83% | 1.30% | 1.10% | 0.79% | 0.87% | 1.26% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 598,348.39 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 65,447.64 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 532,900.75 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 119,669.68 | 74,793.55 | 44,876.13 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 532,900.75 | 532,900.75 | 532,900.75 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -119,669.68 | -74,793.55 | -44,876.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 413,231.07 | 458,107.20 | 488,024.62 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 196.08 | 196.08 | 196.08 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2,107.45 | 2,336.32 | 2,488.89 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 333.78 | 333.78 | 333.78 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2,107.45 | 2,336.32 | 2,488.89 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2,441.23 | 2,670.09 | 2,822.67 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.11% | 9.11% | 9.11% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $71,282.92 | $108,824.41 | $188,112.37 |
| Upside / Downside | 19.80% | 82.90% | 216.16% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 598,348.39 | 637,241.03 | 678,661.70 | 722,774.71 | 769,755.06 | 819,789.14 | 844,382.82 |
| Payout Ratio | 10.94% | 26.75% | 42.56% | 58.38% | 74.19% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 65,447.64 | 170,464.78 | 288,857.62 | 421,921.32 | 571,062.88 | 737,810.23 | 781,054.11 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.11% | 9.11% | 9.11% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 154,760.72 | 156,227.65 | 157,694.58 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 238,087.19 | 242,622.09 | 247,199.76 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 315,725.59 | 324,788.94 | 334,024.10 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 387,961.25 | 402,881.14 | 418,227.29 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 455,066.83 | 477,046.73 | 499,867.85 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 7,880,481.00 | 8,261,111.18 | 8,656,308.97 |
| Equity Value (M) | 9,432,082.59 | 9,864,677.73 | 10,313,322.55 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 196.08 | 196.08 | 196.08 |
| Fair Value | $48,102.99 | $50,309.20 | $52,597.26 |
| Upside / Downside | -19.15% | -15.45% | -11.60% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |