Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

COFCO Joycome Foods Limited (1610.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.12 - $3.15$2.61
Multi-Stage$3.88 - $4.28$4.08
Blended Fair Value$3.34
Current Price$1.44
Upside132.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.020.000.130.150.130.000.000.000.860.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-14.24%16.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.15%0.00%6.35%6.03%5.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%62.91%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,188.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,119.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)237.78148.6189.17
Cash Retained (M)1,119.901,119.901,119.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-237.78-148.61-89.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)882.12971.291,030.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,582.634,582.634,582.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.12$2.61$3.15
Upside / Downside46.95%81.21%118.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,188.921,177.031,165.261,153.611,142.071,130.651,164.57
Payout Ratio5.81%22.64%39.48%56.32%73.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.02266.53460.08649.73835.551,017.581,077.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)245.17247.67250.17
Year 2 PV (M)389.30397.29405.36
Year 3 PV (M)505.73521.37537.33
Year 4 PV (M)598.25623.05648.61
Year 5 PV (M)670.21705.11741.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,382.2716,183.2617,017.28
Equity Value (M)17,790.9518,677.7619,600.20
Shares Outstanding (M)4,582.634,582.634,582.63
Fair Value$3.88$4.08$4.28
Upside / Downside169.60%183.04%197.02%

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