Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $124,772.58 - $450,169.32 | $397,129.89 |
| Multi-Stage | $56,907.66 - $62,271.65 | $59,540.48 |
| Blended Fair Value | $228,335.19 | |
| Current Price | $13,760.00 | |
| Upside | 1,559.41% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 12.15% | 8.80% | 702.52 | 796.47 | 664.93 | 406.31 | 430.11 | 396.03 | 366.39 | 379.50 | 359.69 | 333.69 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -11.80% | 19.78% | 63.65% | -5.53% | 8.61% | 8.09% | -3.46% | 5.51% | 7.79% | 10.39% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.82% | 9.38% | 9.64% | 4.35% | 5.10% | 8.63% | 4.39% | 3.26% | 3.32% | 3.75% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 386,368.08 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 116,761.57 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 269,606.51 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 77,273.62 | 48,296.01 | 28,977.61 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 269,606.51 | 269,606.51 | 269,606.51 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -77,273.62 | -48,296.01 | -28,977.61 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 192,332.90 | 221,310.50 | 240,628.91 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 170.69 | 170.69 | 170.69 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1,126.80 | 1,296.57 | 1,409.75 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 684.06 | 684.06 | 684.06 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1,126.80 | 1,296.57 | 1,409.75 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1,810.86 | 1,980.63 | 2,093.81 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $124,772.58 | $397,129.89 | $450,169.32 |
| Upside / Downside | 806.78% | 2,786.12% | 3,171.58% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 386,368.08 | 411,482.01 | 438,228.34 | 466,713.18 | 497,049.53 | 529,357.75 | 545,238.49 |
| Payout Ratio | 30.22% | 42.18% | 54.13% | 66.09% | 78.04% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 116,761.57 | 173,547.62 | 237,222.53 | 308,441.95 | 387,917.63 | 476,421.98 | 504,345.60 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 160,624.32 | 162,146.82 | 163,669.33 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 203,208.20 | 207,078.74 | 210,985.80 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 244,540.82 | 251,560.71 | 258,713.67 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 284,649.28 | 295,596.09 | 306,855.64 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 323,560.13 | 339,188.20 | 355,414.40 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 8,496,929.48 | 8,907,334.35 | 9,333,446.39 |
| Equity Value (M) | 9,713,512.23 | 10,162,904.92 | 10,629,085.23 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 170.69 | 170.69 | 170.69 |
| Fair Value | $56,907.66 | $59,540.48 | $62,271.65 |
| Upside / Downside | 313.57% | 332.71% | 352.56% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |