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China Gas Holdings Limited (0384.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.90 - $215.52$71.49
Multi-Stage$33.04 - $36.14$34.56
Blended Fair Value$53.03
Current Price$7.62
Upside595.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.90%15.85%0.490.550.550.570.480.440.330.260.180.17
YoY Growth---11.82%-0.02%-2.29%17.40%8.67%35.11%27.72%45.85%1.24%55.58%
Dividend Yield--6.89%7.91%5.01%5.65%1.52%1.65%1.18%0.90%1.41%1.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,940.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,629.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)311.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,188.07742.54445.53
Cash Retained (M)311.12311.12311.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,188.07-742.54-445.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-876.95-431.42-134.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,399.435,399.435,399.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Fair Value$37.90$71.49$215.52
Upside / Downside397.41%838.18%2,728.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,940.366,230.736,535.306,854.757,189.827,541.277,767.51
Payout Ratio94.76%93.81%92.86%91.91%90.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,629.245,845.056,068.526,299.866,539.326,787.147,184.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Year 1 PV (M)5,446.195,498.615,551.03
Year 2 PV (M)5,268.555,370.465,473.35
Year 3 PV (M)5,096.165,244.755,396.19
Year 4 PV (M)4,928.895,121.435,319.55
Year 5 PV (M)4,766.595,000.465,243.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)152,882.82160,383.89168,176.54
Equity Value (M)178,389.19186,619.59195,160.09
Shares Outstanding (M)5,399.435,399.435,399.43
Fair Value$33.04$34.56$36.14
Upside / Downside333.58%353.58%374.34%

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