Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $314,984.37 - $692,648.12 | $453,026.13 |
| Multi-Stage | $1,391,458.51 - $1,540,299.08 | $1,464,360.89 |
| Blended Fair Value | $958,693.51 | |
| Current Price | $216,000.00 | |
| Upside | 343.84% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -12.59% | 18.18% | 3,277.39 | 6,993.99 | 6,135.45 | 9,084.13 | 5,546.10 | 6,423.28 | 7,976.14 | 4,183.31 | 3,096.78 | 3,539.06 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -53.14% | 13.99% | -32.46% | 63.79% | -13.66% | -19.47% | 90.67% | 35.09% | -12.50% | 473.62% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.19% | 3.40% | 1.65% | 1.94% | 0.64% | 0.99% | 1.63% | 1.00% | 1.02% | 1.40% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 341,592.84 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 28,314.46 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 313,278.38 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 68,318.57 | 42,699.11 | 25,619.46 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 313,278.38 | 313,278.38 | 313,278.38 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -68,318.57 | -42,699.11 | -25,619.46 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 244,959.81 | 270,579.27 | 287,658.91 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 19.40 | 19.40 | 19.40 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 12,629.56 | 13,950.44 | 14,831.03 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1,459.83 | 1,459.83 | 1,459.83 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 12,629.56 | 13,950.44 | 14,831.03 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 14,089.39 | 15,410.27 | 16,290.86 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 0.83% | 0.83% | 0.83% |
| Growth Rate | -3.49% | -2.49% | -1.49% |
| Fair Value | $314,984.37 | $453,026.13 | $692,648.12 |
| Upside / Downside | 45.83% | 109.73% | 220.67% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 341,592.84 | 333,085.26 | 324,789.57 | 316,700.49 | 308,812.87 | 301,121.70 | 310,155.35 |
| Payout Ratio | 8.29% | 24.63% | 40.97% | 57.32% | 73.66% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 28,314.46 | 82,042.77 | 133,077.24 | 181,518.72 | 227,464.74 | 271,009.53 | 286,893.70 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 0.83% | 0.83% | 0.83% |
| Growth Rate | -3.49% | -2.49% | -1.49% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 80,535.88 | 81,370.36 | 82,204.85 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 128,233.64 | 130,904.83 | 133,603.57 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 171,699.37 | 177,092.15 | 182,596.68 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 211,208.04 | 220,098.92 | 229,267.59 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 247,018.81 | 260,084.43 | 273,697.17 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 26,149,685.72 | 27,532,827.08 | 28,973,886.00 |
| Equity Value (M) | 26,988,381.46 | 28,402,377.78 | 29,875,255.86 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 19.40 | 19.40 | 19.40 |
| Fair Value | $1,391,458.51 | $1,464,360.89 | $1,540,299.08 |
| Upside / Downside | 544.19% | 577.94% | 613.10% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |