Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $247,862.26 - $693,265.53 | $385,153.66 |
| Multi-Stage | $278,830.78 - $306,082.88 | $292,199.40 |
| Blended Fair Value | $338,676.53 | |
| Current Price | $70,100.00 | |
| Upside | 383.13% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 1.67% | 4.90% | 1,568.21 | 1,960.27 | 2,191.50 | 1,804.77 | 1,574.93 | 1,443.69 | 1,443.55 | 1,443.55 | 1,443.69 | 1,069.40 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -20.00% | -10.55% | 21.43% | 14.59% | 9.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% | -0.01% | 35.00% | 10.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.21% | 2.38% | 2.83% | 1.98% | 2.68% | 4.89% | 3.30% | 3.29% | 3.72% | 2.47% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 70,501.81 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 11,950.07 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 58,551.74 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 14,100.36 | 8,812.73 | 5,287.64 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 58,551.74 | 58,551.74 | 58,551.74 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -14,100.36 | -8,812.73 | -5,287.64 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 44,451.38 | 49,739.01 | 53,264.10 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 6.77 | 6.77 | 6.77 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 6,562.54 | 7,343.18 | 7,863.60 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1,764.24 | 1,764.24 | 1,764.24 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 6,562.54 | 7,343.18 | 7,863.60 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 8,326.78 | 9,107.42 | 9,627.84 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.35% | 6.35% | 6.35% |
| Growth Rate | 2.90% | 3.90% | 4.90% |
| Fair Value | $247,862.26 | $385,153.66 | $693,265.53 |
| Upside / Downside | 253.58% | 449.43% | 888.97% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 70,501.81 | 73,249.73 | 76,104.74 | 79,071.04 | 82,152.96 | 85,354.99 | 87,915.64 |
| Payout Ratio | 16.95% | 31.56% | 46.17% | 60.78% | 75.39% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 11,950.07 | 23,117.63 | 35,137.57 | 48,059.39 | 61,935.12 | 76,819.49 | 81,321.97 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.35% | 6.35% | 6.35% |
| Growth Rate | 2.90% | 3.90% | 4.90% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 21,527.19 | 21,736.40 | 21,945.61 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 30,469.12 | 31,064.22 | 31,665.08 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 38,807.05 | 39,949.50 | 41,114.17 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 46,570.78 | 48,407.71 | 50,298.46 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 53,788.83 | 56,453.83 | 59,223.43 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,697,497.33 | 1,781,600.97 | 1,869,005.64 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,888,660.30 | 1,979,212.64 | 2,073,252.39 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 6.77 | 6.77 | 6.77 |
| Fair Value | $278,830.78 | $292,199.40 | $306,082.88 |
| Upside / Downside | 297.76% | 316.83% | 336.64% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |