Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $172,115.11 - $202,780.76 | $190,035.27 |
| Multi-Stage | $35,065.70 - $38,429.23 | $36,716.36 |
| Blended Fair Value | $113,375.82 | |
| Current Price | $13,790.00 | |
| Upside | 722.16% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 9.32% | 8.37% | 114.54 | 105.00 | 105.78 | 76.93 | 73.37 | 73.37 | 100.96 | 75.83 | 66.44 | 51.15 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 9.09% | -0.74% | 37.50% | 4.85% | 0.00% | -27.33% | 33.15% | 14.13% | 29.89% | -0.27% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.94% | 0.84% | 1.03% | 0.46% | 0.55% | 1.71% | 1.63% | 1.52% | 1.18% | 0.87% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 13,025.64 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,662.01 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 11,363.62 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,605.13 | 1,628.20 | 976.92 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 11,363.62 | 11,363.62 | 11,363.62 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,605.13 | -1,628.20 | -976.92 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 8,758.50 | 9,735.42 | 10,386.70 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 12.77 | 12.77 | 12.77 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 685.61 | 762.08 | 813.06 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 130.10 | 130.10 | 130.10 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 685.61 | 762.08 | 813.06 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 815.71 | 892.18 | 943.17 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.96% | 5.96% | 5.96% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $172,115.11 | $190,035.27 | $202,780.76 |
| Upside / Downside | 1,148.12% | 1,278.07% | 1,370.49% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 13,025.64 | 13,872.30 | 14,774.00 | 15,734.31 | 16,757.04 | 17,846.25 | 18,381.64 |
| Payout Ratio | 12.76% | 28.21% | 43.66% | 59.10% | 74.55% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,662.01 | 3,913.05 | 6,449.70 | 9,299.58 | 12,492.70 | 16,061.63 | 17,003.02 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.96% | 5.96% | 5.96% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,658.23 | 3,692.91 | 3,727.58 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 5,637.04 | 5,744.41 | 5,852.80 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 7,598.56 | 7,816.68 | 8,038.95 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 9,542.89 | 9,909.88 | 10,287.36 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 11,470.15 | 12,024.16 | 12,599.38 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 410,048.74 | 429,854.24 | 450,417.75 |
| Equity Value (M) | 447,955.61 | 469,042.29 | 490,923.82 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 12.77 | 12.77 | 12.77 |
| Fair Value | $35,065.70 | $36,716.36 | $38,429.23 |
| Upside / Downside | 154.28% | 166.25% | 178.67% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |