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WLM Participações e Comércio de Máquinas e Veículos S.A. (WLMM3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$162.03 - $617.78$468.34
Multi-Stage$76.95 - $84.16$80.49
Blended Fair Value$274.41
Current Price$20.29
Upside1,252.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.47%1.69%0.660.390.510.340.320.190.000.000.081.26
YoY Growth--66.32%-23.22%51.00%7.59%68.71%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-93.83%126.73%
Dividend Yield--2.12%1.82%2.39%0.98%1.32%1.40%0.00%0.00%3.63%66.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)117.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.5514.728.83
Cash Retained (M)70.5770.5770.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.55-14.72-8.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.0255.8661.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.9037.9037.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.241.471.63
LTM Dividend per Share1.241.241.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.241.471.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.492.722.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$162.03$468.34$617.78
Upside / Downside698.57%2,208.21%2,944.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)117.74125.39133.54142.23151.47161.32166.15
Payout Ratio40.06%50.05%60.04%70.02%80.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.1762.7680.1899.59121.19145.18153.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)58.0458.5959.14
Year 2 PV (M)68.5769.8771.19
Year 3 PV (M)78.7781.0383.33
Year 4 PV (M)88.6492.0595.56
Year 5 PV (M)98.20102.94107.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,524.402,646.332,772.93
Equity Value (M)2,916.623,050.823,190.02
Shares Outstanding (M)37.9037.9037.90
Fair Value$76.95$80.49$84.16
Upside / Downside279.25%296.70%314.80%

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