Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $15.94 - $86.00 | $31.27 |
| Multi-Stage | $12.55 - $13.77 | $13.15 |
| Blended Fair Value | $22.21 | |
| Current Price | $1.28 | |
| Upside | 1,635.23% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 54.52% | 40.06% | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 258.86% | 104.76% | -74.74% | -6.16% | 405.66% | 0.59% | -41.77% | 135.03% | -11.62% | 171.10% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.90% | 2.10% | 1.25% | 6.32% | 5.44% | 1.76% | 1.98% | 3.27% | 0.38% | 0.37% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 88,104.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 4,976.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 83,128.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 17,620.80 | 11,013.00 | 6,607.80 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 83,128.00 | 83,128.00 | 83,128.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -17,620.80 | -11,013.00 | -6,607.80 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 65,507.20 | 72,115.00 | 76,520.20 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 200,900.00 | 200,900.00 | 200,900.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.28% | 6.28% | 6.28% |
| Growth Rate | 4.00% | 5.00% | 6.00% |
| Fair Value | $15.94 | $31.27 | $86.00 |
| Upside / Downside | 1,145.56% | 2,342.92% | 6,618.36% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 88,104.00 | 92,504.96 | 97,125.75 | 101,977.36 | 107,071.32 | 112,419.73 | 115,792.32 |
| Payout Ratio | 5.65% | 22.52% | 39.39% | 56.26% | 73.13% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 4,976.00 | 20,830.54 | 38,256.59 | 57,371.59 | 78,300.80 | 101,177.75 | 107,107.89 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.28% | 6.28% | 6.28% |
| Growth Rate | 4.00% | 5.00% | 6.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 19,412.34 | 19,599.01 | 19,785.67 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 33,224.70 | 33,866.74 | 34,514.92 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 46,433.25 | 47,785.65 | 49,164.06 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 59,057.59 | 61,362.12 | 63,733.44 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 71,116.76 | 74,602.38 | 78,223.36 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,292,721.81 | 2,405,094.36 | 2,521,830.48 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,521,966.45 | 2,642,310.25 | 2,767,251.94 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 200,900.00 | 200,900.00 | 200,900.00 |
| Fair Value | $12.55 | $13.15 | $13.77 |
| Upside / Downside | 880.73% | 927.53% | 976.12% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |