Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $172.41 - $259.14 | $213.44 |
| Multi-Stage | $357.18 - $393.31 | $374.89 |
| Blended Fair Value | $294.17 | |
| Current Price | $202.00 | |
| Upside | 45.63% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 9.26% | 0.00% | 10.29 | 7.72 | 6.47 | 3.32 | 4.83 | 6.61 | 4.73 | 5.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 33.33% | 19.24% | 94.85% | -31.27% | -26.87% | 39.66% | -7.38% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.42% | 3.04% | 2.81% | 1.09% | 1.34% | 4.79% | 1.75% | 1.88% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,563,233.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 446,335.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,116,898.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 312,646.60 | 195,404.13 | 117,242.48 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,116,898.00 | 1,116,898.00 | 1,116,898.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -312,646.60 | -195,404.13 | -117,242.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 804,251.40 | 921,493.88 | 999,655.53 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 76,215.20 | 76,215.20 | 76,215.20 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 10.55 | 12.09 | 13.12 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.86 | 5.86 | 5.86 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 10.55 | 12.09 | 13.12 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 16.41 | 17.95 | 18.97 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | -2.27% | -1.27% | -0.27% |
| Fair Value | $172.41 | $213.44 | $259.14 |
| Upside / Downside | -14.65% | 5.67% | 28.29% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,563,233.00 | 1,543,423.83 | 1,523,865.68 | 1,504,555.37 | 1,485,489.76 | 1,466,665.75 | 1,510,665.72 |
| Payout Ratio | 28.55% | 40.84% | 53.13% | 65.42% | 77.71% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 446,335.00 | 630,359.55 | 809,648.54 | 984,292.44 | 1,154,380.17 | 1,319,999.18 | 1,397,365.80 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.03% | 7.03% | 7.03% |
| Growth Rate | -2.27% | -1.27% | -0.27% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 582,966.24 | 588,931.14 | 594,896.03 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 692,479.10 | 706,722.46 | 721,110.82 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 778,555.09 | 802,698.93 | 827,336.83 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 844,440.64 | 879,535.90 | 915,713.90 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 892,994.93 | 939,624.97 | 988,182.92 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 23,431,211.09 | 24,654,732.56 | 25,928,839.95 |
| Equity Value (M) | 27,222,647.08 | 28,572,245.96 | 29,976,080.44 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 76,215.20 | 76,215.20 | 76,215.20 |
| Fair Value | $357.18 | $374.89 | $393.31 |
| Upside / Downside | 76.82% | 85.59% | 94.71% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |