Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,066.58 - $1,605.97 | $1,321.47 |
| Multi-Stage | $2,267.23 - $2,489.17 | $2,376.04 |
| Blended Fair Value | $1,848.76 | |
| Current Price | $2,591.50 | |
| Upside | -28.66% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 9.75% | 17.40% | 101.99 | 150.32 | 67.16 | 75.06 | 67.50 | 64.06 | 61.21 | 81.96 | 81.99 | 81.96 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -32.16% | 123.82% | -10.52% | 11.21% | 5.37% | 4.65% | -25.32% | -0.05% | 0.05% | 299.64% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.14% | 7.84% | 3.64% | 4.59% | 2.93% | 5.29% | 4.56% | 5.46% | 5.44% | 9.77% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 6,807.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5,515.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,292.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,361.40 | 850.88 | 510.53 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,292.00 | 1,292.00 | 1,292.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,361.40 | -850.88 | -510.53 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -69.40 | 441.13 | 781.48 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 54.08 | 54.08 | 54.08 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -1.28 | 8.16 | 14.45 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 101.99 | 101.99 | 101.99 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -1.28 | 8.16 | 14.45 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 100.70 | 110.14 | 116.44 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.13% | 7.13% | 7.13% |
| Growth Rate | -2.11% | -1.11% | -0.11% |
| Fair Value | $1,066.58 | $1,321.47 | $1,605.97 |
| Upside / Downside | -58.84% | -49.01% | -38.03% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 6,807.00 | 6,731.16 | 6,656.16 | 6,582.00 | 6,508.67 | 6,436.15 | 6,629.24 |
| Payout Ratio | 81.02% | 82.82% | 84.61% | 86.41% | 88.20% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5,515.00 | 5,574.45 | 5,631.90 | 5,687.37 | 5,740.90 | 5,792.54 | 6,132.05 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.13% | 7.13% | 7.13% |
| Growth Rate | -2.11% | -1.11% | -0.11% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 5,150.93 | 5,203.55 | 5,256.17 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,808.63 | 4,907.38 | 5,007.14 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,487.06 | 4,625.99 | 4,767.76 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4,185.18 | 4,358.84 | 4,537.85 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,901.99 | 4,105.42 | 4,317.25 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 100,069.79 | 105,286.86 | 110,719.28 |
| Equity Value (M) | 122,603.59 | 128,488.05 | 134,605.45 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 54.08 | 54.08 | 54.08 |
| Fair Value | $2,267.23 | $2,376.04 | $2,489.17 |
| Upside / Downside | -12.51% | -8.31% | -3.95% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |