Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $415,763.06 - $1,919,199.28 | $731,475.21 |
| Multi-Stage | $346,758.35 - $379,299.51 | $362,728.91 |
| Blended Fair Value | $547,102.06 | |
| Current Price | $161,100.00 | |
| Upside | 239.60% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.12% | 14.60% | 6,867.75 | 6,337.75 | 5,863.28 | 5,300.45 | 5,514.66 | 5,102.16 | 4,711.22 | 5,187.15 | 4,765.50 | 2,348.79 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 8.36% | 8.09% | 10.62% | -3.88% | 8.08% | 8.30% | -9.18% | 8.85% | 102.89% | 33.67% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.26% | 4.29% | 3.43% | 3.11% | 3.25% | 3.75% | 2.54% | 3.35% | 3.28% | 1.38% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 62,736.71 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 45,762.46 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 16,974.25 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 12,547.34 | 7,842.09 | 4,705.25 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 16,974.25 | 16,974.25 | 16,974.25 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -12,547.34 | -7,842.09 | -4,705.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 4,426.91 | 9,132.16 | 12,269.00 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 4.68 | 4.68 | 4.68 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 945.87 | 1,951.21 | 2,621.44 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 9,777.76 | 9,777.76 | 9,777.76 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 945.87 | 1,951.21 | 2,621.44 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 10,723.63 | 11,728.97 | 12,399.19 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.81% | 6.81% | 6.81% |
| Growth Rate | 4.12% | 5.12% | 6.12% |
| Fair Value | $415,763.06 | $731,475.21 | $1,919,199.28 |
| Upside / Downside | 158.08% | 354.05% | 1,091.31% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 62,736.71 | 65,951.09 | 69,330.17 | 72,882.38 | 76,616.60 | 80,542.14 | 82,958.40 |
| Payout Ratio | 72.94% | 76.35% | 79.77% | 83.18% | 86.59% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 45,762.46 | 50,356.92 | 55,302.05 | 60,621.72 | 66,341.34 | 72,487.92 | 76,736.52 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.81% | 6.81% | 6.81% |
| Growth Rate | 4.12% | 5.12% | 6.12% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 46,698.11 | 47,146.59 | 47,595.08 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 47,557.77 | 48,475.64 | 49,402.29 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 48,344.68 | 49,751.00 | 51,184.34 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 49,061.95 | 50,974.03 | 52,941.47 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 49,712.58 | 52,146.07 | 54,673.93 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,381,544.16 | 1,449,172.28 | 1,519,423.22 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,622,919.24 | 1,697,665.62 | 1,775,220.33 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 4.68 | 4.68 | 4.68 |
| Fair Value | $346,758.35 | $362,728.91 | $379,299.51 |
| Upside / Downside | 115.24% | 125.16% | 135.44% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |