Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $1,150,336.79 - $2,289,495.21 | $2,145,592.31 |
| Multi-Stage | $356,382.45 - $389,983.12 | $372,874.41 |
| Blended Fair Value | $1,259,233.36 | |
| Current Price | $183,500.00 | |
| Upside | 586.23% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 45.18% | 14.12% | 7,880.54 | 9,415.78 | 2,303.21 | 2,003.23 | 1,853.24 | 1,221.75 | 1,234.19 | 3,560.60 | 3,412.31 | 2,305.61 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -16.30% | 308.81% | 14.97% | 8.09% | 51.69% | -1.01% | -65.34% | 4.35% | 48.00% | 9.56% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.78% | 7.33% | 2.21% | 2.37% | 1.97% | 1.89% | 0.98% | 2.24% | 1.96% | 1.18% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 386,042.57 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 188,697.01 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 197,345.56 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 77,208.51 | 48,255.32 | 28,953.19 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 197,345.56 | 197,345.56 | 197,345.56 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -77,208.51 | -48,255.32 | -28,953.19 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 120,137.04 | 149,090.24 | 168,392.36 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 33.53 | 33.53 | 33.53 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 3,582.62 | 4,446.04 | 5,021.65 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5,627.16 | 5,627.16 | 5,627.16 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 3,582.62 | 4,446.04 | 5,021.65 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 9,209.79 | 10,073.20 | 10,648.81 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $1,150,336.79 | $2,145,592.31 | $2,289,495.21 |
| Upside / Downside | 526.89% | 1,069.26% | 1,147.68% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 386,042.57 | 411,135.33 | 437,859.13 | 466,319.97 | 496,630.77 | 528,911.77 | 544,779.12 |
| Payout Ratio | 48.88% | 57.10% | 65.33% | 73.55% | 81.78% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 188,697.01 | 234,774.21 | 286,044.21 | 342,987.38 | 406,124.63 | 476,020.59 | 503,920.69 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 218,694.37 | 220,767.30 | 222,840.23 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 248,203.31 | 252,930.88 | 257,703.06 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 277,229.70 | 285,187.97 | 293,297.10 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 305,779.34 | 317,538.75 | 329,634.12 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 333,857.98 | 349,983.45 | 366,726.07 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 10,566,897.21 | 11,077,282.30 | 11,607,201.03 |
| Equity Value (M) | 11,950,661.90 | 12,503,690.64 | 13,077,401.60 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 33.53 | 33.53 | 33.53 |
| Fair Value | $356,382.45 | $372,874.41 | $389,983.12 |
| Upside / Downside | 94.21% | 103.20% | 112.52% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWBK | Hawthorn Bancshares, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.77 | 24.18% |
| UTMD | Utah Medical Products, Inc. | 2.27% | $1.28 | 35.35% |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. | 2.26% | $4.52 | 38.61% |
| EML | The Eastern Company | 2.26% | $0.44 | 37.05% |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida | 2.26% | $0.71 | 43.09% |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | 2.26% | $1.45 | 35.88% |
| 0JYA.L | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | 2.25% | $3.72 | 74.60% |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 2.25% | $0.80 | 29.79% |
| IBM | International Business Machines Corporation | 2.25% | $6.56 | 78.75% |
| 0KYZ.L | SBA Communications Corporation | 2.24% | $4.32 | 54.40% |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | 2.24% | $2.82 | 24.06% |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp. | 2.24% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | 2.24% | $4.07 | 40.12% |
| FXNC | First National Corporation | 2.23% | $0.55 | 86.28% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | 2.22% | $1.24 | 31.97% |
| SSB | SouthState Corporation | 2.22% | $2.09 | 30.58% |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.77 | 20.42% |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | 2.22% | $0.41 | 37.79% |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank Group, Inc. | 2.21% | $0.93 | 26.22% |
| CG | The Carlyle Group Inc. | 2.20% | $1.34 | 76.25% |
| NHI | National Health Investors, Inc. | 2.20% | $1.69 | 54.58% |
| VNO | Vornado Realty Trust | 2.20% | $0.73 | 15.58% |
| BANC | Banc of California, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.43 | 32.44% |
| EBTC | Enterprise Bancorp, Inc. | 2.19% | $0.87 | 26.66% |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. | 2.19% | $2.09 | 57.31% |
| CDP | COPT Defense Properties | 2.18% | $0.60 | 45.15% |
| FDS | FactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2.18% | $6.20 | 39.64% |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank Corporation | 2.18% | $1.10 | 44.52% |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | 2.18% | $1.64 | 37.28% |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services Corp | 2.17% | $1.17 | 22.34% |
| ETH | Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust | 2.17% | $0.64 | 34.57% |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings Corporation | 2.17% | $0.32 | 36.19% |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.56 | 20.21% |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 2.16% | $0.48 | 26.89% |
| EHTH | eHealth, Inc. | 2.16% | $0.09 | 5.60% |
| TPL | Texas Pacific Land Corporation | 2.16% | $6.42 | 31.02% |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.12 | 26.40% |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear Company | 2.15% | $1.20 | 35.55% |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings Inc. | 2.15% | $0.73 | 28.46% |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | 2.15% | $1.98 | 35.76% |
| RCKY | Rocky Brands, Inc. | 2.15% | $0.62 | 22.50% |
| BDX | Becton, Dickinson and Company | 2.14% | $4.17 | 71.28% |
| CI | Cigna Corporation | 2.14% | $5.96 | 26.01% |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial Services, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.15 | 18.19% |
| JBSS | John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | 2.14% | $1.49 | 26.50% |
| JNPR | Juniper Networks, Inc. | 2.14% | $0.86 | 82.37% |
| POOL | Pool Corporation | 2.14% | $4.92 | 44.68% |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.62 | 62.56% |
| CSTR | CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.13% | $0.43 | 30.48% |
| HTLF | Heartland Financial USA, Inc. | 2.13% | $1.38 | 69.73% |