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BA Airport Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (BAREIT.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - SpecialtySector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.03 - $10.54$8.70
Multi-Stage$14.45 - $15.85$15.13
Blended Fair Value$11.91
Current Price$9.35
Upside27.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022
DPS0.00%0.00%0.730.580.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--26.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.94%5.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)871.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)778.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)92.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)174.27108.9265.35
Cash Retained (M)92.4892.4892.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-174.27-108.92-65.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)-81.79-16.4427.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,033.001,033.001,033.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.750.750.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.03$8.70$10.54
Upside / Downside-24.77%-6.99%12.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)871.36862.65854.02845.48837.03828.66853.52
Payout Ratio89.39%89.51%89.63%89.75%89.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)778.88772.15765.48758.86752.30745.79789.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)711.67718.94726.20
Year 2 PV (M)650.26663.60677.08
Year 3 PV (M)594.15612.53631.27
Year 4 PV (M)542.88565.38588.57
Year 5 PV (M)496.03521.86548.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,928.5912,549.7413,196.50
Equity Value (M)14,923.5915,632.0416,368.37
Shares Outstanding (M)1,033.001,033.001,033.00
Fair Value$14.45$15.13$15.85
Upside / Downside54.51%61.85%69.47%

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