Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mobile Telecommunications Company K.S.C.P. (ZAIN.KW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.47 - $0.70$0.58
Multi-Stage$0.92 - $1.01$0.96
Blended Fair Value$0.77
Current Price$0.48
Upside59.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.36%0.00%0.040.040.030.040.030.030.030.030.030.00
YoY Growth--6.02%6.76%-23.52%39.70%2.39%-14.11%10.37%16.12%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.83%7.10%6.07%6.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)247.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)160.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)87.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.4930.9318.56
Cash Retained (M)87.2287.2287.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.49-30.93-18.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.7356.2968.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,327.064,327.064,327.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.58%7.58%7.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.47$0.58$0.70
Upside / Downside-3.09%19.56%44.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)247.46244.99242.54240.11237.71235.33242.39
Payout Ratio64.75%69.80%74.85%79.90%84.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)160.24171.00181.54191.85201.93211.80224.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.58%7.58%7.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)157.35158.96160.56
Year 2 PV (M)153.71156.86160.05
Year 3 PV (M)149.47154.09158.81
Year 4 PV (M)144.77150.77156.95
Year 5 PV (M)139.72146.99154.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,230.263,398.473,573.61
Equity Value (M)3,975.284,166.144,364.55
Shares Outstanding (M)4,327.064,327.064,327.06
Fair Value$0.92$0.96$1.01
Upside / Downside90.21%99.34%108.83%

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