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Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.57 - $215.57$188.55
Multi-Stage$28.02 - $30.61$29.29
Blended Fair Value$108.92
Current Price$10.62
Upside925.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.65%9.83%0.520.440.280.150.100.160.160.120.140.25
YoY Growth--16.23%57.17%88.15%44.45%-36.91%4.57%26.08%-9.95%-45.27%25.53%
Dividend Yield--5.57%4.27%2.70%1.45%1.88%14.07%3.34%1.64%1.34%3.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)911.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)621.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)290.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)182.24113.9068.34
Cash Retained (M)290.00290.00290.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-182.24-113.90-68.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)107.76176.10221.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)840.65840.65840.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.210.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.210.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.00
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$59.57$188.55$215.57
Upside / Downside460.93%1,675.42%1,929.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)911.20970.431,033.511,100.681,172.231,248.421,285.88
Payout Ratio68.17%72.54%76.90%81.27%85.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)621.20703.94794.81894.521,003.831,123.581,189.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)651.49657.67663.84
Year 2 PV (M)680.79693.76706.84
Year 3 PV (M)709.11729.46750.21
Year 4 PV (M)736.48764.80793.93
Year 5 PV (M)762.91799.76838.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,012.0420,978.6321,982.21
Equity Value (M)23,552.8224,624.0825,735.06
Shares Outstanding (M)840.65840.65840.65
Fair Value$28.02$29.29$30.61
Upside / Downside163.82%175.82%188.26%

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