Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Vistry Group PLC (VTY.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.15 - $9.21$7.60
Multi-Stage$7.46 - $8.18$7.81
Blended Fair Value$7.71
Current Price$6.38
Upside20.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.320.410.260.000.230.380.180.160.14
YoY Growth---100.00%-20.52%56.58%0.00%-100.00%-39.35%114.57%9.06%12.53%71.04%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.52%6.50%2.19%0.00%1.76%4.71%1.60%2.11%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)245.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)245.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.2030.7518.45
Cash Retained (M)245.95245.95245.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.20-30.75-18.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)196.75215.20227.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)341.61341.61341.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.630.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.630.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate10.25%10.25%10.25%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$6.15$7.60$9.21
Upside / Downside-3.53%19.19%44.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)245.98250.45255.00259.63264.35269.16277.23
Payout Ratio0.01%18.01%36.01%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0345.1091.82140.21190.34242.24256.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.25%10.25%10.25%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)40.5140.9141.31
Year 2 PV (M)74.0675.5377.03
Year 3 PV (M)101.57104.62107.73
Year 4 PV (M)123.83128.82133.95
Year 5 PV (M)141.53148.69156.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,065.742,170.242,278.93
Equity Value (M)2,547.242,668.822,795.09
Shares Outstanding (M)341.61341.61341.61
Fair Value$7.46$7.81$8.18
Upside / Downside16.87%22.45%28.25%

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