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Definitive Analysis

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Türkiye Sigorta Anonim Sirketi (TURSG.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$131.78 - $464.78$435.56
Multi-Stage$58.69 - $64.26$61.42
Blended Fair Value$248.49
Current Price$9.28
Upside2,577.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.23%0.00%0.130.020.070.070.070.040.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--542.86%-70.66%7.55%-12.10%86.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.47%0.35%6.09%10.52%10.50%15.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,527.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)14,527.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,505.542,190.961,314.58
Cash Retained (M)14,527.7014,527.7014,527.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,505.54-2,190.96-1,314.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,022.1612,336.7313,213.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,500.007,500.007,500.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.471.641.76
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.471.641.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.872.042.16
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$131.78$435.56$464.78
Upside / Downside1,320.03%4,593.57%4,908.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,527.7018,667.0019,880.3521,172.5722,548.7924,014.4624,734.90
Payout Ratio17.12%31.69%46.27%60.85%75.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,000.005,916.069,198.5312,882.7317,007.0121,613.0222,879.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,477.285,529.195,581.11
Year 2 PV (M)7,884.668,034.848,186.43
Year 3 PV (M)10,223.6110,517.0910,816.14
Year 4 PV (M)12,495.5812,976.1213,470.40
Year 5 PV (M)14,701.9815,412.1016,149.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)389,404.90408,213.30427,741.55
Equity Value (M)440,188.01460,682.65481,945.01
Shares Outstanding (M)7,500.007,500.007,500.00
Fair Value$58.69$61.42$64.26
Upside / Downside532.45%561.90%592.45%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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