DDM Analysis: TUB.BR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$85.88 - $201.04	$126.16
Multi-Stage	$62.92 - $68.73	$65.77
Blended Fair Value	$95.96
Current Price	$133.00
Upside	-27.85%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.61%	7.29%	0.97	0.86	0.75	0.68	0.62	0.56	0.54	0.52	0.50	0.48
YoY Growth	-	-	12.79%	14.68%	10.28%	9.68%	10.72%	3.62%	3.82%	4.00%	4.18%	0.13%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.68%	1.20%	1.06%	0.75%	0.75%	0.88%	0.89%	0.79%	0.84%	0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	182.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	46.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)	136.42

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	36.55	22.84	13.71
Cash Retained (M)	136.42	136.42	136.42
(-) Cash Required (M)	-36.55	-22.84	-13.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)	99.87	113.58	122.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	44.51	44.51	44.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.24	2.55	2.76
LTM Dividend per Share	1.04	1.04	1.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.24	2.55	2.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.28	3.59	3.80
WACC / Discount Rate	9.32%	9.32%	9.32%
Growth Rate	5.29%	6.29%	7.29%
Fair Value	$85.88	$126.16	$201.04
Upside / Downside	-35.43%	-5.15%	51.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	182.76	194.26	206.48	219.47	233.28	247.96	255.40
Payout Ratio	25.35%	38.28%	51.21%	64.14%	77.07%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	46.33	74.37	105.74	140.77	179.79	223.17	236.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.32%	9.32%	9.32%
Growth Rate	5.29%	6.29%	7.29%
Year 1 PV (M)	67.39	68.03	68.67
Year 2 PV (M)	86.83	88.48	90.16
Year 3 PV (M)	104.74	107.75	110.82
Year 4 PV (M)	121.22	125.89	130.69
Year 5 PV (M)	136.34	142.94	149.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,284.04	2,394.58	2,509.36
Equity Value (M)	2,800.55	2,927.67	3,059.49
Shares Outstanding (M)	44.51	44.51	44.51
Fair Value	$62.92	$65.77	$68.73
Upside / Downside	-52.69%	-50.55%	-48.32%

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Financière de Tubize S.A. (TUB.BR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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