Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Telkom S.A. SOC Limited (TKG.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$169.31 - $252.96$209.05
Multi-Stage$235.46 - $258.48$246.75
Blended Fair Value$227.90
Current Price$51.19
Upside345.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-67.71%-25.95%0.010.010.020.010.523.443.644.244.212.59
YoY Growth--100.00%-62.50%60.00%-98.05%-85.01%-5.58%-14.22%0.81%62.42%964.46%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.02%0.05%0.02%1.22%16.74%4.93%8.01%5.61%4.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,005.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,303.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,702.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,001.001,250.63750.38
Cash Retained (M)8,702.008,702.008,702.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,001.00-1,250.63-750.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,701.007,451.387,951.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)497.05497.05497.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.4814.9916.00
LTM Dividend per Share2.622.622.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.4814.9916.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.1017.6118.62
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate-0.15%0.85%1.85%
Fair Value$169.31$209.05$252.96
Upside / Downside230.75%308.38%394.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,005.0010,089.9910,175.7010,262.1410,349.3110,437.2310,750.34
Payout Ratio13.02%28.42%43.81%59.21%74.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,303.002,867.454,458.396,076.157,721.079,393.509,944.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate-0.15%0.85%1.85%
Year 1 PV (M)2,596.362,622.362,648.37
Year 2 PV (M)3,655.243,728.823,803.14
Year 3 PV (M)4,510.614,647.504,787.12
Year 4 PV (M)5,189.835,400.885,618.31
Year 5 PV (M)5,717.066,009.136,313.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)95,368.27100,240.49105,309.84
Equity Value (M)117,037.37122,649.19128,479.79
Shares Outstanding (M)497.05497.05497.05
Fair Value$235.46$246.75$258.48
Upside / Downside359.98%382.03%404.95%

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