Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tiger Brands Limited (TBS.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$825.65 - $1,763.42$1,175.05
Multi-Stage$660.56 - $718.26$688.90
Blended Fair Value$931.97
Current Price$308.73
Upside201.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS36.80%8.00%22.6210.469.978.8410.744.7214.5611.8211.6910.59
YoY Growth--116.20%4.94%12.80%-17.69%127.42%-67.58%23.19%1.11%10.41%1.10%
Dividend Yield--7.33%4.49%6.50%5.22%5.73%2.47%6.92%4.45%3.10%2.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,845.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,268.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)577.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,369.10855.69513.41
Cash Retained (M)577.30577.30577.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,369.10-855.69-513.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)-791.80-278.3963.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)156.87156.87156.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share-5.05-1.770.41
LTM Dividend per Share39.9639.9639.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share-5.05-1.770.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend34.9138.1840.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$825.65$1,175.05$1,763.42
Upside / Downside167.44%280.61%471.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,845.507,290.467,764.348,269.028,806.519,378.939,660.30
Payout Ratio91.57%91.25%90.94%90.63%90.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,268.206,652.797,060.897,493.947,953.458,441.048,935.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,993.356,050.166,106.96
Year 2 PV (M)5,730.485,839.635,949.81
Year 3 PV (M)5,479.075,636.365,796.62
Year 4 PV (M)5,238.635,440.105,647.32
Year 5 PV (M)5,008.695,250.615,501.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)76,174.9279,854.2083,674.29
Equity Value (M)103,625.14108,071.04112,676.79
Shares Outstanding (M)156.87156.87156.87
Fair Value$660.56$688.90$718.26
Upside / Downside113.96%123.14%132.65%

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