Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shri Venkatesh Refineries Limi (SVRL.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.34 - $96.39$78.14
Multi-Stage$137.58 - $151.70$144.50
Blended Fair Value$111.32
Current Price$135.00
Upside-17.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%1.000.690.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--44.45%38.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.53%0.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)133.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.6818.5511.13
Cash Retained (M)133.10133.10133.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.68-18.55-11.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)103.42114.55121.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.1122.1122.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.685.185.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.690.690.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.685.185.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.375.876.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$62.34$78.14$96.39
Upside / Downside-53.82%-42.12%-28.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148.42146.93145.46144.01142.57141.14145.38
Payout Ratio10.32%26.25%42.19%58.13%74.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.3138.5861.3783.71105.59127.03134.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)35.8836.2436.61
Year 2 PV (M)53.0854.1755.27
Year 3 PV (M)67.3369.4171.54
Year 4 PV (M)78.9982.2685.63
Year 5 PV (M)88.3792.9797.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,718.392,859.953,007.34
Equity Value (M)3,042.033,195.003,354.15
Shares Outstanding (M)22.1122.1122.11
Fair Value$137.58$144.50$151.70
Upside / Downside1.91%7.04%12.37%

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