Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM-B.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.00 - $16.99$14.46
Multi-Stage$17.35 - $19.08$18.20
Blended Fair Value$16.33
Current Price$35.49
Upside-53.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-27.25%0.00%0.245.157.842.000.781.150.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---95.43%-34.28%291.53%157.53%-32.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.59%10.60%9.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)524.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)518.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.9065.5639.34
Cash Retained (M)518.59518.59518.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.90-65.56-39.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)413.69453.03479.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)285.63285.63285.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.451.591.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.451.591.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.471.611.70
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.00$14.46$16.99
Upside / Downside-66.19%-59.25%-52.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)524.50519.25514.06508.92503.83498.79513.76
Payout Ratio1.13%18.90%36.68%54.45%72.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.9198.14188.53277.11363.89448.91475.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)88.3289.2290.12
Year 2 PV (M)152.69155.82158.98
Year 3 PV (M)201.96208.21214.58
Year 4 PV (M)238.67248.56258.76
Year 5 PV (M)264.96278.76293.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,008.064,216.764,434.08
Equity Value (M)4,954.655,197.335,449.64
Shares Outstanding (M)285.63285.63285.63
Fair Value$17.35$18.20$19.08
Upside / Downside-51.12%-48.73%-46.24%

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