Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Satyamitra Kemas Lestari Tbk (SMKL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.32 - $81.08$64.93
Multi-Stage$128.66 - $141.81$135.11
Blended Fair Value$100.02
Current Price$159.00
Upside-37.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%2.0012.0012.007.964.970.000.000.007.310.00
YoY Growth---83.33%0.00%50.80%60.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.34%6.19%4.05%1.92%2.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,675.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,500.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,175.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,535.042,209.401,325.64
Cash Retained (M)12,175.1912,175.1912,175.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,535.04-2,209.40-1,325.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,640.169,965.7910,849.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,418.093,418.093,418.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.532.923.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.611.611.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.532.923.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.144.524.78
WACC / Discount Rate5.90%5.90%5.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$51.32$64.93$81.08
Upside / Downside-67.72%-59.16%-49.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,675.1917,498.4417,323.4617,150.2216,978.7216,808.9317,313.20
Payout Ratio31.12%42.89%54.67%66.45%78.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,500.007,505.729,470.7711,395.7813,281.3315,128.0416,014.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.90%5.90%5.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)7,016.027,087.617,159.21
Year 2 PV (M)8,275.288,445.038,616.49
Year 3 PV (M)9,307.649,595.499,889.21
Year 4 PV (M)10,139.9610,560.2110,993.39
Year 5 PV (M)10,796.3211,358.5111,943.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)394,228.95414,757.37436,132.19
Equity Value (M)439,764.17461,804.22484,734.36
Shares Outstanding (M)3,418.093,418.093,418.09
Fair Value$128.66$135.11$141.81
Upside / Downside-19.08%-15.03%-10.81%

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