Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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DS Smith Plc (SMDS.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.91 - $81.64$57.67
Multi-Stage$43.92 - $47.99$45.92
Blended Fair Value$51.79
Current Price$3.50
Upside1,379.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.72%12.81%0.710.840.480.000.640.540.450.350.310.27
YoY Growth---14.53%74.10%0.00%-100.00%18.72%19.11%29.75%12.04%14.89%27.03%
Dividend Yield--20.41%27.13%14.50%0.00%20.58%15.15%9.34%8.55%8.80%8.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)887.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)536.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)351.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.40110.8866.53
Cash Retained (M)351.00351.00351.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.40-110.88-66.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)173.60240.13284.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)345.82345.82345.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.690.82
LTM Dividend per Share1.551.551.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.690.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.052.242.37
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Fair Value$41.91$57.67$81.64
Upside / Downside1,097.29%1,547.66%2,232.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)887.00925.96966.621,009.071,053.391,099.651,132.64
Payout Ratio60.43%66.34%72.26%78.17%84.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)536.00614.30698.45788.81885.75989.691,047.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Year 1 PV (M)560.99566.42571.84
Year 2 PV (M)582.48593.80605.23
Year 3 PV (M)600.74618.34636.28
Year 4 PV (M)616.03640.21665.10
Year 5 PV (M)628.58659.57691.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,199.6412,801.1413,426.12
Equity Value (M)15,188.4615,879.4816,596.35
Shares Outstanding (M)345.82345.82345.82
Fair Value$43.92$45.92$47.99
Upside / Downside1,154.84%1,211.93%1,271.16%

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