Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Skåne-möllan AB (publ) (SKMO.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.34 - $102.54$55.51
Multi-Stage$41.52 - $45.45$43.45
Blended Fair Value$49.48
Current Price$63.60
Upside-22.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.94%0.00%1.401.401.401.201.101.101.101.101.102.60
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%16.67%9.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-57.69%85.71%
Dividend Yield--2.72%2.69%1.42%1.15%2.00%2.62%2.76%2.62%2.90%6.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.181.991.19
Cash Retained (M)0.500.500.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.18-1.99-1.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.68-1.49-0.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.0011.0011.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.24-0.14-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.24-0.14-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.261.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.94%3.94%4.94%
Fair Value$35.34$55.51$102.54
Upside / Downside-44.43%-12.72%61.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.9016.5317.1817.8618.5619.2919.87
Payout Ratio96.86%95.48%94.11%92.74%91.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.4015.7816.1716.5616.9617.3618.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate2.94%3.94%4.94%
Year 1 PV (M)14.7014.8414.99
Year 2 PV (M)14.0314.3014.58
Year 3 PV (M)13.3913.7814.18
Year 4 PV (M)12.7713.2813.79
Year 5 PV (M)12.1812.7913.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)389.63408.93428.98
Equity Value (M)456.71477.92499.94
Shares Outstanding (M)11.0011.0011.00
Fair Value$41.52$43.45$45.45
Upside / Downside-34.72%-31.69%-28.54%

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