Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Millennium Pharmacon International Tbk (SDPC.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,119.81 - $2,624.41$2,459.46
Multi-Stage$381.64 - $418.04$399.50
Blended Fair Value$1,429.48
Current Price$137.00
Upside943.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.58%0.00%2.502.001.000.501.003.002.001.141.710.23
YoY Growth--25.00%100.00%100.00%-50.00%-66.67%50.00%75.00%-33.33%661.07%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%1.41%0.49%0.42%0.79%3.75%1.80%1.09%1.30%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,812.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,548.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)14,264.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,362.412,101.511,260.90
Cash Retained (M)14,264.0614,264.0614,264.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,362.41-2,101.51-1,260.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,901.6512,162.5513,003.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,274.001,274.001,274.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.569.5510.21
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.569.5510.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.5611.5512.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,119.81$2,459.46$2,624.41
Upside / Downside717.38%1,695.22%1,815.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,812.0617,904.8419,068.6620,308.1221,628.1523,033.9823,725.00
Payout Ratio15.16%30.12%45.09%60.06%75.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,548.005,393.778,598.7212,197.5316,227.8520,730.5821,945.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,017.275,064.835,112.38
Year 2 PV (M)7,440.207,581.917,724.96
Year 3 PV (M)9,817.4210,099.2510,386.41
Year 4 PV (M)12,149.6012,616.8413,097.43
Year 5 PV (M)14,437.3615,134.6915,858.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)437,347.32458,471.36480,403.86
Equity Value (M)486,209.17508,968.87532,583.76
Shares Outstanding (M)1,274.001,274.001,274.00
Fair Value$381.64$399.50$418.04
Upside / Downside178.57%191.61%205.14%

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