Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Scope Metals Group Ltd. (SCOP.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$132.63 - $214.63$169.50
Multi-Stage$186.37 - $204.53$195.28
Blended Fair Value$182.39
Current Price$154.00
Upside18.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.004.639.215.257.007.006.125.257.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-49.71%75.50%-25.00%0.00%14.29%16.67%-25.00%-9.48%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%3.87%5.67%6.30%12.10%7.32%6.23%5.48%15.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)150.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.1918.8711.32
Cash Retained (M)117.88117.88117.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.19-18.87-11.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)87.6999.01106.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.4512.4512.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.047.958.56
LTM Dividend per Share2.662.662.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.047.958.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.7010.6111.21
WACC / Discount Rate8.19%8.19%8.19%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$132.63$169.50$214.63
Upside / Downside-13.87%10.07%39.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)150.96153.70156.50159.34162.24165.19170.15
Payout Ratio21.91%35.53%49.15%62.77%76.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.0854.6176.92100.01123.92148.67157.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.19%8.19%8.19%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)49.9850.4850.97
Year 2 PV (M)64.4365.7167.01
Year 3 PV (M)76.6778.9881.33
Year 4 PV (M)86.9590.4594.06
Year 5 PV (M)95.47100.30105.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,947.182,045.692,148.14
Equity Value (M)2,320.682,431.602,546.82
Shares Outstanding (M)12.4512.4512.45
Fair Value$186.37$195.28$204.53
Upside / Downside21.02%26.80%32.81%

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