Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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RSA Insurance Group plc 7.375% CUM IRR PRF GBP1 (RSAB.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.07 - $0.08$0.08
Multi-Stage$0.13 - $0.14$0.14
Blended Fair Value$0.11
Current Price$1.23
Upside-91.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-47.75%-24.87%0.010.014.440.070.150.150.130.080.040.01
YoY Growth---25.00%-99.83%6,324.07%-55.37%4.76%15.50%52.67%101.54%622.22%-94.27%
Dividend Yield--0.52%0.75%352.24%5.36%11.64%12.85%8.59%6.76%3.49%0.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)47.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.405.883.53
Cash Retained (M)35.5035.5035.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.40-5.88-3.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.1029.6331.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,563.261,563.261,563.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate-19.51%-18.51%-17.51%
Fair Value$0.07$0.08$0.08
Upside / Downside-94.59%-93.80%-93.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)47.0038.3031.2125.4320.7316.8917.40
Payout Ratio24.47%37.57%50.68%63.79%76.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.5014.3915.8216.2215.9415.2016.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate-19.51%-18.51%-17.51%
Year 1 PV (M)12.9713.1313.29
Year 2 PV (M)12.8513.1713.49
Year 3 PV (M)11.8812.3212.78
Year 4 PV (M)10.5111.0511.60
Year 5 PV (M)9.049.6110.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)145.04154.28163.98
Equity Value (M)202.29213.56225.37
Shares Outstanding (M)1,563.261,563.261,563.26
Fair Value$0.13$0.14$0.14
Upside / Downside-89.48%-88.89%-88.28%

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