Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Qatar Gas Transport Company Limited (Nakilat) (QPSC) (QGTS.QA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.96 - $59.92$47.34
Multi-Stage$8.68 - $9.51$9.09
Blended Fair Value$28.21
Current Price$4.96
Upside468.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.66%6.91%0.210.130.120.120.100.100.100.100.120.12
YoY Growth--61.38%10.55%3.66%18.54%-1.43%0.67%-2.58%-18.49%4.37%8.23%
Dividend Yield--4.58%3.34%3.47%3.23%3.09%4.71%4.75%6.60%5.82%4.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,667.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)787.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)880.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)333.57208.48125.09
Cash Retained (M)880.46880.46880.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-333.57-208.48-125.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)546.89671.97755.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,505.175,505.175,505.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.91%5.91%6.91%
Fair Value$15.96$47.34$59.92
Upside / Downside221.79%854.37%1,108.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,667.861,766.501,870.971,981.622,098.822,222.952,289.64
Payout Ratio47.21%55.77%64.33%72.88%81.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)787.40985.141,203.521,444.291,709.322,000.652,117.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.91%5.91%6.91%
Year 1 PV (M)916.22924.95933.69
Year 2 PV (M)1,041.011,060.951,081.08
Year 3 PV (M)1,161.861,195.411,229.59
Year 4 PV (M)1,278.871,328.331,379.21
Year 5 PV (M)1,392.111,459.741,529.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,017.7844,058.8046,178.38
Equity Value (M)47,807.8650,028.1852,331.90
Shares Outstanding (M)5,505.175,505.175,505.17
Fair Value$8.68$9.09$9.51
Upside / Downside75.08%83.22%91.65%

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