Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,900.51 - $15,703.65$10,040.07
Multi-Stage$4,803.45 - $5,253.99$5,024.61
Blended Fair Value$7,532.34
Current Price$2,460.00
Upside206.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.98%16.38%397.711,091.47686.8972.55317.10327.24291.5852.2753.0461.29
YoY Growth---63.56%58.90%846.76%-77.12%-3.10%12.23%457.83%-1.46%-13.45%-29.74%
Dividend Yield--15.78%37.77%17.22%2.21%12.10%15.01%6.91%1.78%2.01%4.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,903,926.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,903,924.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)780,785.20487,990.75292,794.45
Cash Retained (M)3,903,924.003,903,924.003,903,924.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-780,785.20-487,990.75-292,794.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,123,138.803,415,933.253,611,129.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,514.3611,514.3611,514.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share271.24296.67313.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share271.24296.67313.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend271.24296.67313.62
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$6,900.51$10,040.07$15,703.65
Upside / Downside180.51%308.13%538.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,903,926.004,157,681.194,427,930.474,715,745.955,022,269.435,348,716.955,509,178.46
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.00748,384.321,594,056.332,546,503.783,616,034.514,813,845.255,095,990.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.65%9.65%9.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)676,131.52682,540.35688,949.17
Year 2 PV (M)1,301,117.941,325,900.591,350,917.03
Year 3 PV (M)1,877,862.671,931,769.361,986,697.94
Year 4 PV (M)2,409,120.762,501,768.752,597,063.62
Year 5 PV (M)2,897,507.913,037,458.633,182,765.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,146,848.1948,375,758.2250,689,973.87
Equity Value (M)55,308,588.9957,855,195.8860,496,367.22
Shares Outstanding (M)11,514.3611,514.3611,514.36
Fair Value$4,803.45$5,024.61$5,253.99
Upside / Downside95.26%104.25%113.58%

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