Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Pearson plc (PSON.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.27 - $10.27$8.75
Multi-Stage$14.04 - $15.42$14.71
Blended Fair Value$11.73
Current Price$10.72
Upside9.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.20%-8.92%0.230.220.230.220.210.210.200.460.620.61
YoY Growth--1.30%-1.28%4.70%2.05%-0.68%8.09%-57.23%-25.00%0.24%6.55%
Dividend Yield--1.77%2.31%2.41%3.53%3.12%3.35%2.10%6.28%7.51%8.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)790.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)421.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)369.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)158.0098.7559.25
Cash Retained (M)369.00369.00369.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-158.00-98.75-59.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)211.00270.25309.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)688.96688.96688.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.390.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.390.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.001.06
WACC / Discount Rate8.46%8.46%8.46%
Growth Rate-3.70%-2.70%-1.70%
Fair Value$7.27$8.75$10.27
Upside / Downside-32.21%-18.37%-4.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)790.00768.71747.99727.83708.21689.13709.80
Payout Ratio53.29%60.63%67.97%75.32%82.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)421.00466.09508.44548.18585.40620.21656.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.46%8.46%8.46%
Growth Rate-3.70%-2.70%-1.70%
Year 1 PV (M)425.31429.73434.15
Year 2 PV (M)423.37432.21441.14
Year 3 PV (M)416.52429.63443.02
Year 4 PV (M)405.89423.01440.67
Year 5 PV (M)392.41413.21434.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,606.598,009.808,429.93
Equity Value (M)9,670.1010,137.6010,623.79
Shares Outstanding (M)688.96688.96688.96
Fair Value$14.04$14.71$15.42
Upside / Downside30.93%37.26%43.84%

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