Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Pandox AB (publ) (PNDX-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.62 - $124.55$103.11
Multi-Stage$215.57 - $237.68$226.40
Blended Fair Value$164.76
Current Price$180.20
Upside-8.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.36%-3.98%3.782.360.000.000.004.043.793.322.930.77
YoY Growth--59.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%6.78%14.09%13.33%280.00%-86.40%
Dividend Yield--2.18%1.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.93%2.28%2.22%2.14%0.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,028.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)827.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,201.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)405.60253.50152.10
Cash Retained (M)1,201.001,201.001,201.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-405.60-253.50-152.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)795.40947.501,048.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)194.66194.66194.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.094.875.39
LTM Dividend per Share4.254.254.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.094.875.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.339.129.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-3.36%-2.36%-1.36%
Fair Value$83.62$103.11$124.55
Upside / Downside-53.59%-42.78%-30.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,028.001,980.181,933.491,887.901,843.391,799.931,853.92
Payout Ratio40.78%50.62%60.47%70.31%80.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)827.001,002.431,169.131,327.421,477.581,619.931,714.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate-3.36%-2.36%-1.36%
Year 1 PV (M)933.59943.25952.91
Year 2 PV (M)1,014.071,035.161,056.47
Year 3 PV (M)1,072.281,105.921,140.24
Year 4 PV (M)1,111.621,158.351,206.53
Year 5 PV (M)1,135.011,194.971,257.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,695.7438,633.9740,653.26
Equity Value (M)41,962.3144,071.6146,266.84
Shares Outstanding (M)194.66194.66194.66
Fair Value$215.57$226.40$237.68
Upside / Downside19.63%25.64%31.90%

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